http://www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?id=3061- link to lecture
Summary
What will happen to Asia in this century? China has become richer and its people are much more liberated.
However, it currently is nowhere near the level and GDP of the United States and on average, one person in China is ten times poorer than one in States although this is partly due to its immense population and income distribution inequality, which is actually one of China's main problems.
The question is whether China's rise to power will cause conflict or not.
There is currently a rivalry between these two countries for power in Asia.
This is about global change at a speed and intensity that has never been witnessed before due to globalisation.
China has experienced market-led growth, arguably even more than capitalist countries.
Over the last twenty five years, China has experienced the greatest rate of growth to ever be recorded-10% per annum economic growth at its peak.
This is expected to slow sharply, although it will still grow at a higher rate than the US, one reason being that it has already developed to a certain extent.
America's problems include political conflict, but China's are much greater-its dictatorship(communist party) will have to be abolished.
Another big problem within America is that its leaders and influencers tend to blame China for its slow decline due to its own rise.
The key rivalry will be for power in eastern Asia.
China is not likely to be a global power in the near future though as it is now very difficult- it will be a very long time before a global power like America re-emerges.
People in eastern Asia see two Chinas. One is Deng Xiaoping's China. He undid a catastrophic Maoist approach to its neighbours in the 1970s with emphasis on cooperation and integration e.g. in the Eastern Asia financial crisis with China as a participant(US said China was a responsible stakeholder-someone who participated within the system).
The second China is an assertive one since 2008- a China that behaves as a bully to its neighbouring countries, disliked by them.
China's policy now intends to replace the United States as the primary power in Asia while avoiding open conflict with them. But if you challenge someone's interest, a push-back can be expected.
Its relationship with Japan is also problematic due to historical reasons(Japan's occupation in China in WW2). Another difficulty with this relationship is that they are both trying to become the number one power in Asia where only one can succeed. Japan has made the presumption that it could be China's equal, a presumption that has greatly damaged this relationship. China has tried to solve this by pushing Japan further to the United States to make an excuse to see them as an enemy, which has been counterproductive because the Japan-US alliance has only strengthened the former country in that alliance.
The same can be said about south east Asia. Deng Xiaoping said that his greatest achievement was breaking two generations of mistrust with south east Asia. Most problems with mistrust are now gone, e.g. the conflict between countries in the south China sea for resources has died a little plus access to navigation through it.
However, these improved relationships have been ruined again because China has again pushed to take over the sea which means that the US may intervene much more, so China's policy here is again counterproductive.
Could this conflict lead to war? It could happen between the US and China.
Alliances can be destabilising as shown by the Cold War and China is trying to form alliances although they have chosen some problematic links like North Korea and Pakistan, even funding a $96 billion infrastructural programs in the latter(modern version of Silk road).
US strategic superiority is currently putting China off from confronting the US.
So what are the solutions/next steps for cooperation?
What the US has to do is that they need to rebuild their economy internally to be more productive. The US has a golden opportunity to do that right now with roles at all levels for the government in the US' current free market system because the US' global supremacy is coming to an end.
Secondly, the US also has to allow China to take up leadership roles in the international economic system because this is much better than leaving China as an enemy and trying to gain power themselves.
Finally, the US has to set international priorities correctly. Recently, the US has not been very disciplined with its power e.g. in Afghanistan.
What should China do?
Firstly, they should work with the US to tackle issues that they both face and can work together on like climate change.
They should also avoid conflict in Asia by learning from other Asian countries, having a framework that connects them to others e.g. Nato with the US where China can use their power but also have to listen and negotiate with others.
And finally, their dictatorship- there are constant political scandals, corruption, embezzlement. People need more say in order to decentralise power.